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In a surprising market development, Bitcoin has demonstrated lower price fluctuations than major U.S. stock indices during recent Iran-Israel tensions. Data reveals Bitcoin's 60-day realized volatility dropped to 【27%-28%】, outperforming the S&P 500 (30%), Nasdaq 100 (35%), and even the high-flying "Magnificent 7" tech stocks (40%). This stability persists despite Bitcoin's 6% drop following U.S. military actions in Iran, contrasting sharply with its 60%-65% volatility during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict.
A record 14.53 million BTC—nearly 70% of Bitcoin's total supply—now sits in long-term holder wallets, creating unprecedented supply constraints. Glassnode analysts note that over 30% of circulating Bitcoin is controlled by just 216 institutional entities, including ETFs and corporate treasuries. ——This concentration transforms Bitcoin into a maturing asset class——, with reduced circulating supply coinciding with growing institutional demand.
Market observers highlight Bitcoin's resilience as evidence of deepening institutional trust. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and OSL's Eugene Cheung maintain bullish outlooks, predicting sustained growth above $100,000. Some analysts project prices could reach 【$150,000】 by late 2025, fueled by central bank policies and structural supply-demand imbalances.
The cryptocurrency's stable performance during Middle East hostilities marks a departure from its historical reputation. Where Bitcoin once reacted violently to geopolitical shocks, it now shows stability comparable to—or better than—traditional equities. This shift coincides with 【216 institutional players】 accumulating positions, suggesting the asset class is entering a new phase of market behavior.
On-chain metrics reveal strengthening fundamentals beneath the price action. The 30-day average of long-term holder supply continues setting record highs, while exchange reserves dwindle. This dynamic creates what analysts describe as a "structural supply deficit," with daily demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs alone exceeding new supply from mining by a factor of 【5:1】.
——The market's calm response to geopolitical fireworks signals Bitcoin's coming of age—— as institutional adoption reshapes its volatility profile. With supply constraints tightening and macroeconomic conditions favoring scarce assets, Bitcoin's stability during crises may become its new hallmark rather than the exception.