Bloomberg Intelligence analysts now estimate a 90%+ probability for US approvals of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, signaling a significant policy shift at the Securities and Exchange Commission. Erich Balchunas and James Seyffart cite unusually positive engagement from regulators as the key driver behind their upgraded forecast.
The analysts suggest SEC staff likely view major altcoins including Solana (SOL), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) as commodities rather than securities — a crucial distinction that would remove regulatory hurdles. This interpretation follows the agency's recent request for public comments on Franklin Templeton's proposed SOL and XRP ETFs.
——Market observers note this marks a dramatic reversal from the SEC's historically cautious approach to crypto investment products——
While approval appears imminent, Seyffart cautions the launch timeline remains fluid. The process could extend through October or beyond, with the SEC potentially staggering decisions across different cryptocurrency products.
The 【$70 billion】 success of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has triggered a scramble among asset managers to replicate the model. However, Ethereum ETFs' lukewarm reception suggests altcoin funds may face tougher adoption challenges. Glassnode data shows most ETH ETF investors remained underwater as recently as May.
This development reflects both growing institutional demand and evolving regulatory perspectives. As one industry insider noted: "The SEC appears to be acknowledging market realities while maintaining appropriate safeguards." The coming months will test whether altcoin ETFs can match Bitcoin's record-breaking ETF debut.
Interestingly, the approval process coincides with renewed 【31-day】 inflow streaks for Bitcoin ETFs, demonstrating sustained investor appetite despite regulatory uncertainties. Market participants now await concrete signs of when — not if — the crypto ETF landscape will expand.