Striking Parallels Emerge Between Current Crypto Market and 2017 Surge

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal has identified eerie similarities between today's cryptocurrency market dynamics and the historic 2017 bull run. The macroeconomic researcher notes Bitcoin's current trajectory closely follows its pattern seven years ago, when the flagship cryptocurrency surged 【1,255%】 before peaking in December. This observation comes as fresh data suggests the current cycle might extend well into 2026.

Macroeconomic Indicators Point to Prolonged Growth Phase

Pal's analysis hinges on two critical factors: the business cycle score and US dollar performance. His proprietary macroeconomic model currently shows a score below 50, typically signaling early-cycle conditions. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined 【8.99%】 year-to-date, settling at 98.77. "With the dollar breaking down, this may extend into Q2 2026," Pal stated in his recent market commentary.

Middle Eastern Sovereign Wealth Funds Fuel Blockchain Optimism

During recent meetings with Middle Eastern institutional investors, Pal discovered surprising enthusiasm for blockchain infrastructure. ——The mandate across the entire region is AI and blockchain—— he reported, noting governments aren't just considering Bitcoin as a reserve asset but actively building public systems on distributed ledger technology. This institutional adoption could provide the next growth catalyst for crypto markets.

Historical Patterns Suggest Potential Market Trajectory

The 2017 analog shows Bitcoin beginning the year at $1,044 before its meteoric rise to $14,156. Similarly, 2020 saw a 【304%】 annual gain following a March downturn. Pal suggests current conditions resemble early 2020 more than 2021's peak, implying significant upside potential remains. Market observers will watch for confirmation of this extended cycle thesis in coming quarters.

Dollar Weakness Creates Perfect Storm for Crypto Assets

The inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the DXY has become increasingly pronounced. As the dollar weakens, cryptocurrencies gain appeal both as speculative investments and alternative value stores. This dynamic, combined with growing institutional adoption and favorable macroeconomic conditions, sets the stage for what could become crypto's most sustained bull market yet.