Bitcoin's price trajectory appears poised for significant upside as global M2 money supply hits an unprecedented 【$55.48 trillion】, with analysts identifying $170,000 as the next key target. This development coincides with the US dollar's worst first-half performance since 1973, dropping 10.8% against major currencies.
Historical patterns reveal Bitcoin typically follows M2 expansion with a 3-6 month lag. The current cycle shows accelerated responsiveness, with April 2025's breakout above $100,000 occurring within weeks of liquidity injections. ——This isn't speculation driving prices, but real money entering the system—— notes market observer Crypto Auris.
The adjusted M2 metric aggregates dollar liquidity across major economies including: • United States • Eurozone • Japan • United Kingdom • Canada
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue attracting institutional capital, with cumulative flows now exceeding 【$38 billion】 since January. Corporate adoption is accelerating too—UK-based Smarter Web recently added £2.4 million in BTC to its treasury reserves.
The DXY index's breakdown below 100 in April created a notable divergence from Bitcoin's upward trajectory. Such cross-asset separations have historically signaled major trend changes: • 2018/2022: Rising DXY preceded crypto winters • 2020: Negative correlation launched BTC's bull run
BTC/USD maintains its 200-day moving average support while clearing the psychologically important $100,000 level. TradingView charts show the cryptocurrency testing a multi-month ascending triangle pattern—a breakout could validate the $170,000 projection.
Standard Chartered analysts maintain an even more aggressive outlook, predicting $135,000 by Q3 2025. Their models incorporate: 1. ETF flow momentum 2. Halving cycle effects 3. Macro liquidity conditions
While liquidity conditions appear favorable, traders should monitor: • Potential Fed policy shifts • Geopolitical impacts on dollar stability • Bitcoin miner selling pressure
——The current setup combines rare monetary conditions with strong technicals—— observes Caleb Franzen, who first identified the M2-BTC correlation pattern. Market participants await confirmation whether this liquidity wave will indeed carry Bitcoin to new historic highs.