Key Market Dynamics

Bitcoin's price trajectory shows signs of stagnation near the 【$104,000】 support level, with technical indicators pointing to extended consolidation. The cryptocurrency has traded within a descending channel since mid-June, failing to capitalize on earlier bullish momentum due to declining onchain activity and muted trading volumes.

Liquidation Wave Resets Market

Recent volatility triggered 【$53.8 million】 in combined long and short liquidations, according to Glassnode data. The derivatives market saw BTC-denominated open interest drop 7% to 334,000 BTC, indicating a market reset after excessive leverage buildup. ——This flushout creates cleaner technical conditions but reveals weakening speculative interest——

Technical Support Zone Emerges

The $103,400-$104,600 range now serves as a critical battleground, coinciding with: • 200-day exponential moving average • Daily fair value gap • Previous resistance-turned-support level

TradingView charts show Bitcoin testing this zone for the third time this month, with each test showing progressively weaker buying volume. Market analysts suggest the asset needs fresh capital inflows to break the current descending channel pattern.

Macroeconomic Headwinds Intensify

June's Core PCE inflation reading of 【2.7%】 exceeded expectations, reducing prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The sticky inflation data: • Maintains pressure on risk assets • Strengthens dollar position • Limits institutional crypto allocation

Glassnode metrics reveal spot trading volume grew just $7.7 billion in Q2 2025, while transfer volume plunged 36% quarterly. This divergence suggests holders remain cautious despite price stability.

Onchain Metrics Flash Warning

Key network indicators show concerning trends: • Profit-taking addresses declining • New wallet creation slowing • Transaction fees near yearly lows

The cooling activity contrasts with Bitcoin's 【$100,000+】 valuation, creating what analysts call a "fundamental disconnect." Market participants appear to await clearer macroeconomic signals before committing fresh capital.

Potential Scenarios Ahead

Technical analysts outline two primary paths: 1. Breakout above $109,000 could target new highs if accompanied by volume surge 2. Breakdown below $101,500 may trigger stop-loss cascades toward $95,000

The coming week's price action near the 200-EMA will likely determine Bitcoin's medium-term direction. With traditional markets reacting to inflation data and the Fed's stance, cryptocurrency traders face heightened macro sensitivity.