BTC Price Correction Meets Trader Resilience

Bitcoin experienced a 5.5% decline from May 27-30, briefly testing the $104,000 support level for the first time in nearly two weeks. The pullback followed BTC's record high of $111,970 on May 22, with the cryptocurrency now moving in lockstep with US Treasury bond yields as macroeconomic concerns intensify. Notably, 10-year Treasury yields dropped from 4.60% to 4.42% during this period, reflecting growing risk aversion among investors.

Derivatives Data Reveals Underlying Strength

Despite the price drop, BTC derivatives markets show remarkable stability. The futures premium holds steady at 7% — firmly within the neutral 5%-10% range — while aggregate open interest remains just 2% below pre-correction levels at 700,000 BTC. 【Liquidations of bullish positions totaled $323 million】, representing less than 0.5% of total exposure, suggesting controlled deleveraging rather than panic selling.

——The options market tells a similar story—— The 25% delta skew maintains a neutral position between -6% and +6%, indicating balanced expectations between bulls and bears. This contrasts with typical bearish scenarios where put options would command significant premiums.

China's Stablecoin Premium Signals Patient Capital

In Asian markets, Tether (USDT) trades at just a 0.4% discount to the official USD/CNY rate, far narrower than during previous crypto downturns. This anomaly suggests investors are rotating into stablecoins rather than exiting crypto altogether, potentially waiting for macroeconomic clarity. The pattern echoes behavior seen during past consolidation phases before major rallies.

Macro Headwinds Challenge Short-Term Outlook

The escalating US trade war has introduced fresh volatility, with Bitcoin showing an 89% correlation to Treasury yield movements in recent weeks. While spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $347 million in outflows on May 29, derivatives traders appear to view the dip as a buying opportunity. Market makers currently price BTC options with equal probability for upward or downward moves, reflecting confidence in the asset's fundamental resilience.

As of press time, technical indicators suggest the $104,000 level could serve as a springboard for the next leg up — provided macroeconomic conditions stabilize. With futures premiums holding and options markets calm, professional traders seem positioned for a rebound despite the political turbulence roiling traditional markets.