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Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded sharply after a 5.5% drop triggered by renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran. The cryptocurrency dipped to $102,800 following reports of airstrikes but quickly recovered to $105,500, defending a key technical support level. This mirrors its behavior in October 2024 when BTC weathered an 8.8% decline during similar tensions before surging 80% to $108,365 by December.
Analysts highlight BTC's resilience at the 50-day simple moving average (50-day SMA), a trendline that previously marked major bottoms. Charts show striking parallels between the current setup and the 2024 rally, including: ——Identical liquidity grab patterns—— ——Whale accumulation during price dips—— ——Macroeconomic tailwinds from potential Fed rate cuts——
Market observer Merlijn The Trader identifies a recurring fractal where BTC breaks descending resistance after geopolitical shocks. "Same structure. Same trap. Same breakout," he notes, referencing the 2024 surge. On-chain data from CryptoQuant confirms large investors are accumulating BTC below $104,000, while Bitwise research shows BTC typically recovers within 50 days after conflict-related dips.
Bullish forecasts project rallies to 【$150,000】 or higher in 2025, fueled by: • Institutional demand • US-China trade de-escalation • Spot ETF inflows However, skeptics warn the uptrend may exhaust near the current 【$112,000】 record high, citing overbought Bollinger Band signals.
The rebound reflects Bitcoin's evolving role as both risk asset and hedge. While short-term volatility spikes occur during crises, BTC's 2024 performance established a template where: 1. Initial sell-offs trigger liquidity grabs 2. Macro conditions override geopolitical risks 3. Whale buying accelerates recoveries This pattern now appears to be replaying, with technicals and fundamentals aligning for potential new highs.