Regulatory Cloud Lifts for Prediction Market Platform

Two major U.S. regulatory bodies have concluded their probes into crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, marking a significant milestone for the controversial startup. The Justice Department and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially closed their investigations this week, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

Election Betting Triggered Heightened Scrutiny

The regulatory attention intensified following the 2024 U.S. elections, when Polymarket's political prediction markets saw surging activity. Authorities reportedly examined whether the platform improperly allowed U.S. residents to participate in what regulators consider unregistered event-based derivatives trading. This development comes as Polymarket prepares for a 【$200 million】 funding round that could value the company at over $1 billion.

Previous Enforcement Actions Set Precedent

Polymarket's regulatory journey includes a 2022 settlement with the CFTC involving a 【$1.4 million】 penalty for operating an illegal off-exchange facility. The investigation reached its peak in November 2024 when FBI agents conducted a surprise raid on CEO Shayne Coplan's residence, seizing electronic devices. ——Industry analysts note this case represents a broader tension between innovative crypto platforms and traditional regulatory frameworks——

Uncertain Future for Prediction Markets

While the closed investigations remove immediate legal threats, questions remain about the long-term viability of crypto-based prediction markets in the U.S. The CFTC maintains that such platforms must register as designated contract markets, a requirement that could fundamentally alter Polymarket's business model. As of press time, neither Polymarket executives nor regulatory officials had issued public statements regarding the investigation's conclusion.

Global Regulatory Divergence Emerges

The resolution contrasts with recent actions in other jurisdictions, where regulators have taken harder stances against prediction markets. This regulatory milestone may position Polymarket advantageously against competitors facing ongoing scrutiny, particularly as the 2028 election cycle begins to attract betting activity. Market data shows prediction platforms processed over 【$500 million】 in wagers during the 2024 U.S. elections alone.