Bitcoin's Potential 200% Surge Despite Warning Signs

Prominent Bitcoin researcher Sminston With has projected a possible cycle peak between $220,000 and $330,000 for BTC, representing a 100-200% increase from current levels. This forecast emerges as the cryptocurrency demonstrates persistent cyclical volatility, contradicting assumptions about diminishing price swings. ——The analysis suggests Bitcoin's movements follow a distinct power law pattern rather than traditional stock market models——

The Power Law Framework

Using a 365-day simple moving average aligned with a power law model (R²=0.96), With's chart analysis reveals BTC consistently peaks 2-3 times above its trendline during market cycles. With Bitcoin priced at $110,000 on May 27, this model indicates potential upside to the $220K-$330K range. 【This projection aligns with With's accurate January 2025 $100K prediction made when BTC traded at $60,000】

Volatility Defies Expectations

Contrary to beliefs about softening cycles, Bitcoin maintains its characteristic volatility. A secondary graph demonstrates sustained cyclical price deviations without the anticipated decay pattern. This persistence of extreme swings challenges mainstream assumptions about the cryptocurrency's maturation, suggesting traders should prepare for continued turbulence.

Long-Term Holders Move $4B+ in BTC

Glassnode data reveals significant activity among long-term holders (LTHs), with $4.02 billion in BTC moved recently—the largest volume since February 2025. The 3-5 year cohort accounted for $2.16 billion of this movement, historically signaling potential price peaks. ——Such large-scale transfers often precede corrections as investors take profits——

Technical Indicators Show Mixed Signals

While Bitcoin maintains an overall upward trajectory since its $74,500 low, technical analysis suggests possible near-term pressure. The cryptocurrency has formed characteristic sideways ranges after previous highs, with current support around $107,300. Notably, trader TXMC observes BTC completing its seventh consecutive green weekly candle—a pattern that historically precedes pullbacks.

Market Dynamics at Play

The interplay between bullish models and warning signs creates a complex landscape. Exchange reserves continue declining despite the LTH movements, potentially mitigating downward pressure. However, the combination of technical indicators and holder behavior suggests investors should brace for potential volatility in coming weeks as the market tests these conflicting signals.

Analyst Urges Cautious Optimism

With emphasizes that his study draws from only four market cycles, advising measured interpretation. The research highlights Bitcoin's unique price discovery mechanisms while acknowledging the cryptocurrency's unpredictable nature. 【As of press time, BTC struggles to maintain its $110K position】, embodying the very volatility the analysis describes.